Path 3 · Simulation Lab

Change the assumptions. Re-run the model.

Real calculations run server-side for each request: the same Monte Carlo season simulator as the forecast (ported from the Python pipeline and tested against it) and a documented batter simulation. Your scenarios never change the published forecasts.

Tournament simulator Batter scenarios

Scenario assumptions

Each run draws team strengths, a random group format and every match. The baseline uses the published model settings.

Simulated seasons

Team strength adjustment (Elo points)

Applied on top of the model’s 2027 rating. +100 Elo ≈ 64% win chance against an average team, instead of 50%. Range ±150.

CSK±0DC±0GT±0KKR±0LSG±0MI±0PBKS±0RCB±0RR±0SRH±0

Strength uncertaintyModel posterior (fitted on 2010–2026)Fixed τ (Elo standard deviation)

Home advantage: 20 EloModel: 20. Range 0–60.

Baseline vs your scenario

Your scenario

No assumptions changed. Scenario equals baseline.

Running the baseline…