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IPL 2027 · Data to 2026-05-01
Who wins IPL 2027? A forecast that shows how open it really is.
20,000 simulated seasons give Royal Challengers Bengaluru the best estimated chance, at 12.9%. That is only slightly ahead of the 10% you’d get by picking a team at random. Every number here comes from a model trained and tested season by season on 1,212 IPL matches.
Photo: Zoshua Colah on Unsplash · Arun Jaitley Stadium, New Delhi
Highest title chance
RCB 12.9%
Royal Challengers Bengaluru · lowest: MI 8.2%
Most expected runs
572
Sai Sudharsan · 80% interval 207–820
Simulated seasons
20,000
Group format drawn at random each time; team strength sampled from its posterior
Data cutoff
2026-05-01
IPL 2026 partial: 43 matches in the dataset
Three ways in
Read the forecasts, inspect the evidence behind them, then change the assumptions yourself.
Read this before the numbers
IPL outcomes are close to coin flips. The forecasts say so.
The models were tested season by season, each one trained only on earlier data. Here is what that testing found, and it is why no team is shown as a near-certain champion.
How the models were validatedHistorical result
Match level, 2013–2026 (882 matches): the best model’s log loss was 0.6942, against 0.6931 for a coin flip, a difference within noise.
Historical result
Pre-season title forecasts beat a uniform guess in 8 of 13 seasons, but only 1 of 4 since the 2022 expansion and mega-auctions.
Historical result
Batter totals: the two-part model’s typical error for established batters was 136.6 runs, and its 80% intervals contained the actual total 80.1% of the time.
Data fact
Not in the data: 2027 squads, auction, injuries, schedule and groups. Forecasts are conditional on 2026 teams and the 2022–26 format, and are labelled as estimates throughout.