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Path 1 · Champion predictor
Pre-season forecast from 20,000 simulated seasons. Title chances range from 8.2% to 12.9%, so even the leader is far more likely not to win. RCB (12.9%) and GT (12.2%) are close enough that their order is uncertain.
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Ranked by estimated title probability. Expected points are average league points over the 14-match league stage.
| # | Team | Champion | Final | Top four | Exp. points | Elo (end of data) | Titles in data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 12.9% | 24.5% | 45.9% | 14.5 | 1516 | 1 |
| 2 | Gujarat Titans | 12.2% | 24.4% | 46.0% | 14.5 | 1513 | 1 |
| 3 | Punjab Kings | 11.0% | 21.5% | 42.5% | 14.2 | 1507 | — |
| 4 | Kolkata Knight Riders | 9.9% | 18.9% | 38.2% | 13.9 | 1496 | 3 |
| 5 | Sunrisers Hyderabad | 9.8% | 19.4% | 39.3% | 13.9 | 1500 | 1 |
| 6 | Rajasthan Royals | 9.5% | 19.8% | 39.7% | 14.0 | 1499 | 1 |
| 7 | Delhi Capitals | 9.1% | 18.5% | 38.4% | 13.8 | 1496 | — |
| 8 | Lucknow Super Giants | 8.9% | 18.4% | 38.0% | 13.8 | 1495 | — |
| 9 | Chennai Super Kings | 8.4% | 17.8% | 36.8% | 13.7 | 1493 | 5 |
| 10 | Mumbai Indians | 8.2% | 16.8% | 35.3% | 13.6 | 1492 | 5 |
1.Royal Challengers Bengaluru
2.Gujarat Titans
3.Punjab Kings
4.Kolkata Knight Riders
5.Sunrisers Hyderabad
6.Rajasthan Royals
7.Delhi Capitals
8.Lucknow Super Giants
9.Chennai Super Kings
10.Mumbai Indians
Champion probabilities sum to 100.0%. Monte Carlo standard error of the largest probability ≈ 0.24 percentage points.
Each season’s forecast was made using only earlier seasons and the real fixture list. Scored by the log probability given to the actual champion (higher is better).
| Period | Model | Uniform | Beat uniform |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–2021 | -1.781 | -2.093 | 7 of 9 |
| 2022–2025 | -2.536 | -2.303 | 1 of 4 |
| All | -2.013 | -2.157 | 8 of 13 |
Before 2022 the model beat a uniform guess, because CSK and MI stayed strong for years. Since the 2022 expansion and the mega-auctions it has done worse than uniform. Pre-season ranks of the actual champions: GT 2022 (#5), CSK 2023 (#1), KKR 2024 (#9), RCB 2025 (#10).