Path 3 · Simulation Lab

Change the assumptions. Re-run the model.

Real calculations run server-side for each request: the same Monte Carlo season simulator as the forecast (ported from the Python pipeline and tested against it) and a documented batter simulation. Your scenarios never change the published forecasts.

Tournament simulator Batter scenarios

Batter

Model: 11.9 expected innings × 26.5 runs per innings = 315 runs. Innings are bootstrapped from 45 real IPL innings, 2023–26.

Team matches: 15Model: 15 (2022–26 teams averaged 14.65 incl. playoffs). Range 1–17.Availability: 79% of matchesModel: 79%, from this batter's playing-time history. Covers injury, rest and selection.Form multiplier: ×1.00Scales runs per innings. Range ×0.50–×1.50. Backtest: 80% of established batters landed between ×0.62 and ×1.42 of their prediction.

Scenario expected innings: 11.9

Simulated seasons

Tilak Varma: baseline vs scenario

Your scenario

Running the baseline…