Path 3 · Simulation Lab

Change the assumptions. Re-run the model.

Real calculations run server-side for each request: the same Monte Carlo season simulator as the forecast (ported from the Python pipeline and tested against it) and a documented batter simulation. Your scenarios never change the published forecasts.

Tournament simulator Batter scenarios

Batter

Model: 13.1 expected innings × 38.2 runs per innings = 501 runs. Innings are bootstrapped from 52 real IPL innings, 2023–26.

Team matches: 15Model: 15 (2022–26 teams averaged 14.65 incl. playoffs). Range 1–17.Availability: 87% of matchesModel: 87%, from this batter's playing-time history. Covers injury, rest and selection.Form multiplier: ×1.00Scales runs per innings. Range ×0.50–×1.50. Backtest: 80% of established batters landed between ×0.62 and ×1.42 of their prediction.

Scenario expected innings: 13.1

Simulated seasons

Shubman Gill: baseline vs scenario

Your scenario

Running the baseline…